The dearth of headline-grabbing economic data this week did not stop speculation over what the Federal Reserve will do at its upcoming policy meeting on October 28-29. After the September confab, the consensus view was that a rate hike was a virtual certainty, both in October and at the December meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh…
The proverbial dog days of summer were anything but. As new and revised data are coming in, the third quarter is morphing from languid to downright vigorous following a more energetic spring than previously thought. The cooler-than-expected jobs report for September takes some heat off the Fed to hike rates at the October meeting. But…
Despite a swarm of bad news (higher inflation, interest rates, election uncertainty, unending wars) the stock indices remain higher for the year. The “Dow” is up 6.4%, and the more representative S & P 500 Stock Index is up 11.90%. Why? Corporate profits are improving at a much faster pace than anticipated. Interest rates, while…
Despite headline-grabbing headwinds, there is no quit in the U.S. economy – at least not yet. We will get a better sense of how consumers are holding up next week, when the comprehensive personal income and spending report for August is released. But by all accounts households are keeping their wallets wide open, as indicated…
While almost unthinkable earlier this year, the Fed’s first rate hike in three years this week had been telegraphed well in advance, first by Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in August and afterwards by his repeated affirmation that getting inflation under control was a top priority. That commitment was in full display at…
Inflation headlined the economic news this week and the slightly warmer than expected wholesale and consumer price reports for August nudged up the odds that the Fed would hike interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week. However, the financial markets barely reacted to the news, as stock prices recovered some of their earlier losses,…
Note: The weekly commentary will not be published over the Labor Day weekend. The next issue will be published on September 11. Fed Chair Warsh’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposiam on Friday commanded most of the economic headlines this week. That said, the financial markets had plenty of other news to digest, including…
All eyes will be focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming next week, a gathering of the world’s leading central bankers where Fed Chair Warsh will be the featured speaker. It’s doubtful, however, that he will be any more transparent about policy intentions than he has shown so far in his brief time in…
Reports on inflation and consumer spending garnered the economic headlines this week but neither delivered provocative reading. Some details of the reports did raise eyebrows, but they were not enough to move the needle for the Fed, which is dialed in to hold rates steady until – or unless – one becomes more of a…
Friday’s all-important monthly jobs report highlighted the old maxim that occasionally resurfaces, namely that bad news on Main Street is good news on Wall Street. For some time, the focus among investors as well as the Federal Reserve was on inflation, which has been running above its 2 percent target for more than five years…