A big fear during the government shutdown was that the data blackout might be cloaking fundamental shifts in the economy even as it kept policymakers mostly in the dark and, hence, wary of responding inappropriately. Amid that proverbial fear of the unknown, the Fed understandably chose to mitigate the bigger risk, taking out preventive rate…
With the jobs report for December now on the books, it’s time to say a not-so-fondly goodbye to 2025. To be sure, the data are preliminary and subject to revision, and a bevy of other reports capturing year-end activity is yet to come. But jobs are the main engine of growth, and its trend provides…
2025 was another good year for stock investors. The DJIA was up almost 14% and the S & P 500 Stock Index rose over 16%. Despite wars starting and stopping, tariffs, persistent inflation, unfounded recession fears, and continued political gridlock, the market responded to the tried-and-true catalysts: Interest rates and corporate profits. Both were well-behaved. The Federal reserve began lowering interest rates, and corporate profits…
Unless meaningful data comes out over the holidays, this will be the last full weekly for 2025, although we may publish a truncated version before the end of the year. We would like to wish all of our readers a happy and prosperous holiday season. On the surface, the Fed has to be pleased with…
The Fed followed the expected script this week, cutting rates by another quarter-percentage point, the third consecutive cut since September. If there was any drama at the gathering, it concerned the dissenters, among which were three. While that’s a lot historically, there was more of a consensus than thought, as the whisper speculation suggested as…
The backfilling of data continues apace, providing more evidence of the economy’s performance before the government shutdown. Nothing too revelatory is coming to the surface, as incoming information confirms general perceptions: Conditions were weakening, but the economy retained adequate muscle heading into the fourth quarter. We won’t be getting the official tally of third quarter…
With the government reopened and the data mills humming once again, the health of the economy is gradually coming into better focus. Unfortunately, clarity is still elusive for what transpired in October and November, as only sketchy data for the former has been collected, and information for November is still being gathered. Hence, when the…
Better late than never. Nearly seven weeks behind schedule the Labor Department is back in business and released the all-important employment report for September. That’s ancient history for a job market that appears nearing a crossroads. But the report provides critical information on labor conditions before the government shutdown caused a data blackout. While a…
Now that that government door has reopened, we anxiously await the data blitz that will soon hit the headlines. The jobs report for September should be released fairly soon, as the data were collected before the shutdown. But don’t expect to receive much information about what happened in October as the blackout impaired data collection…
While the Fed dithers over whether preventing job losses or hotter inflation should receive more attention, it may get help from an unexpected source. The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments over the legality of the Trump administration’s tariff blitz, having to decide whether it is justified by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. If it…