Like a pesky neighbor, the US/Iran conflict continues to command unwelcome attention, capturing headlines and bedeviling forecasters striving to look through external shocks. Just as it seemed the energy-induced inflation surge was behind us thanks to the MOU struck in mid- June, hostilities are flaring up again, and so too are oil prices. To be…
The second quarter of this year saw continued volatility in stock prices. However, despite multiple wars, higher inflation, and potentially higher interest rates, two of the major market indices – the S & P 500 Stock Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average – made record highs. Both indices are up about 8.6% year-to-date. Why?…
Kevin Warsh just served his first full month as Chair of the Fed and is probably more pleased than not with the first significant economic report for the period – the June jobs report. The 57 thousand increase in nonfarm payrolls last month was far less than the expected 115 thousand What’s more, the downside…
The plunge in crude oil prices since the ceasefire was announced on June 14 has been swift, much faster and deeper than most oil experts expected. As of Friday morning, crude quotes (West Texas Intermediate, or WTI)) fell below $70/barrel for the first time since early March and is barely $2/barrel above the prewar level…
Amid a busy calendar of economic data, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting took center stage this week. The meeting was notable for several reasons including, 1) it was the first under the new Chair, Kevin Warsh, 2) It sounded a more hawkish tone than expected, and 3) it did not elicit a rancorous response on…
To say it was a whirlwind week would be an understatement – and we are not just referring to the colossal come-from-behind victory of the NY Knicks in game 4 of the basketball finals. (On that score, game 5 is scheduled on Saturday, so by the time you read this, another head-spinning outcome could be…
The official start of summer is still a bit more than two weeks away, but if the season mirrors recent economic data, it will be hotter than usual. All significant economic reports this week came in stronger than expected, punctuated by another blockbuster jobs report on Friday. Nonfarm businesses added 172 thousand workers to payrolls…
The stock market continues to rejoice, setting one record after another, as investors opt to look through the myriad headwinds battering the economy. The biggest battering ram, of course, is the ongoing Mideast conflict that has spurred a gas-induced surge in inflation, higher interest rates, a squeeze on budgets for all but wealthy households, sinking…
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman on Friday, ending the eight-year leadership of Jerome Powell. Mr. Powell will not be leaving the Fed, as is customary, but will be moving down the table as a governor until he deems conditions are right for a departure. We expect the transition to…
It was a momentous week on several fronts. The economic calendar was chock full of data, a new chair of the Federal Reserve was confirmed, and the U.S. President flew to China for a high-stakes summit with President Xi Jinping. While not on the agenda, the last item carries resonance for monetary policy, if only…