It was a momentous week on several fronts. The economic calendar was chock full of data, a new chair of the Federal Reserve was confirmed, and the U.S. President flew to China for a high-stakes summit with President Xi Jinping. While not on the agenda, the last item carries resonance for monetary policy, if only…
Amid the widespread doom and gloom over the economy, the U.S. job market is putting on a happy face and shrugging off myriad alarm bells, Including a war-induced surge in gas prices, the job-displacement threat from AI and a K-shaped economy that amplifies the affordability crisis for lower income households. Those ominous signs are still…
“Hello, I must be going” In a more serious vein than Groucho’s semi exit in “Animal Crackers”. Fed Chair Powell bid adieu to an adoring audience – but only after he stays around for a while in a less exalted role than his leadership position. That was one of several surprises at this week’s FOMC…
The week began with more questions than answers and ended much the same way. Topping the list of unresolved issues is the Mideast conflict, which continues to have no end in sight, despite on – again, off – again negotiations. That being the case, the question of how much damage the economy will suffer from…
Reports that Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning is clearly good news for the financial markets and global economy, as it would arrest the oil-induced inflationary surge linked to the Mideast conflict. It remains to be seen if the gesture holds and the U.S. responds by removing its naval blockade of…
With a tenuous cease fire in effect hopes are running high that the unwinding of the oil surge will continue and return a sense of calm to the financial markets. So far, the price of crude is about one-third back towards its prewar level, and further progress will depend on negotiations planned over the weekend….
President Trump’s speech on nationwide TV Wednesday did little to calm the markets or provide assurance that the Mideast war will end sooner rather than later. The overriding impression garnered from his comments is that the prospect of an escalation of hostilities is just as likely as a diplomatic ceasefire. That left the markets mired…
The first quarter of this year was a wild one for the stock market. The S & P 500 Stock Index lost about 4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 3.25%. In late January the two indices set all-time highs. The culprit: the Iran war – sending gasoline prices up about 30%, pointing to higher inflation and possibly higher interest rates,…
Despite President Trump’s decision to postpone the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz — and delay bombing of Iran’s power plants – for another 10 days, the turmoil in the financial markets has not subsided – and likely won’t until visible signs the Mideast war is ending, and the oil spigot reopens….
A widely admired principle states that when you’re surrounded by chaos, seek out the calmest person in the room for direction. That search is ongoing, but Fed chair Powell represented as good of a stand-in this week as anyone available. Given the heat coming from all sides, he was able to cobble together a consensus…