All eyes will be focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming next week, a gathering of the world’s leading central bankers where Fed Chair Warsh will be the featured speaker. It’s doubtful, however, that he will be any more transparent about policy intentions than he has shown so far in his brief time in…
Reports on inflation and consumer spending garnered the economic headlines this week but neither delivered provocative reading. Some details of the reports did raise eyebrows, but they were not enough to move the needle for the Fed, which is dialed in to hold rates steady until – or unless – one becomes more of a…
Friday’s all-important monthly jobs report highlighted the old maxim that occasionally resurfaces, namely that bad news on Main Street is good news on Wall Street. For some time, the focus among investors as well as the Federal Reserve was on inflation, which has been running above its 2 percent target for more than five years…
The hoopla commanding headlines this week centered on the Federal Reserve, which held its second FOMC meeting under the new Chair, Kevin Warsh. As mostly expected, policy makers decided not to take away the punch bowl, opting to keep rates unchanged at the same 3.50-3.75 percent in effect since January. There was more than a…
No one thought the Mideast conflict would go gently into the good night, but the ebb and flow of hostilities took a menacing turn this week. Not only has the tit-for-tat bombing between the U.S. and Iran ramped up another notch, it was reinforced by the Houthis who are now blockading the Red Sea and…
The first rate move under the last six Fed Chairs was an increase. You would have to go back to 1970 when the new Chairman, Arthur Burns, put through a rate cut under pressure from President Nixon. Will the latest newbie at the helm depart from the long list of his predecessors and oversee a…
Like a pesky neighbor, the US/Iran conflict continues to command unwelcome attention, capturing headlines and bedeviling forecasters striving to look through external shocks. Just as it seemed the energy-induced inflation surge was behind us thanks to the MOU struck in mid- June, hostilities are flaring up again, and so too are oil prices. To be…
The second quarter of this year saw continued volatility in stock prices. However, despite multiple wars, higher inflation, and potentially higher interest rates, two of the major market indices – the S & P 500 Stock Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average – made record highs. Both indices are up about 8.6% year-to-date. Why?…
Kevin Warsh just served his first full month as Chair of the Fed and is probably more pleased than not with the first significant economic report for the period – the June jobs report. The 57 thousand increase in nonfarm payrolls last month was far less than the expected 115 thousand What’s more, the downside…
The plunge in crude oil prices since the ceasefire was announced on June 14 has been swift, much faster and deeper than most oil experts expected. As of Friday morning, crude quotes (West Texas Intermediate, or WTI)) fell below $70/barrel for the first time since early March and is barely $2/barrel above the prewar level…