While almost unthinkable earlier this year, the Fed’s first rate hike in three years this week had been telegraphed well in advance, first by Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in August and afterwards by his repeated affirmation that getting inflation under control was a top priority. That commitment was in full display at…
Inflation headlined the economic news this week and the slightly warmer than expected wholesale and consumer price reports for August nudged up the odds that the Fed would hike interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week. However, the financial markets barely reacted to the news, as stock prices recovered some of their earlier losses,…
Note: The weekly commentary will not be published over the Labor Day weekend. The next issue will be published on September 11. Fed Chair Warsh’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposiam on Friday commanded most of the economic headlines this week. That said, the financial markets had plenty of other news to digest, including…
All eyes will be focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming next week, a gathering of the world’s leading central bankers where Fed Chair Warsh will be the featured speaker. It’s doubtful, however, that he will be any more transparent about policy intentions than he has shown so far in his brief time in…
Reports on inflation and consumer spending garnered the economic headlines this week but neither delivered provocative reading. Some details of the reports did raise eyebrows, but they were not enough to move the needle for the Fed, which is dialed in to hold rates steady until – or unless – one becomes more of a…
Friday’s all-important monthly jobs report highlighted the old maxim that occasionally resurfaces, namely that bad news on Main Street is good news on Wall Street. For some time, the focus among investors as well as the Federal Reserve was on inflation, which has been running above its 2 percent target for more than five years…
The hoopla commanding headlines this week centered on the Federal Reserve, which held its second FOMC meeting under the new Chair, Kevin Warsh. As mostly expected, policy makers decided not to take away the punch bowl, opting to keep rates unchanged at the same 3.50-3.75 percent in effect since January. There was more than a…
No one thought the Mideast conflict would go gently into the good night, but the ebb and flow of hostilities took a menacing turn this week. Not only has the tit-for-tat bombing between the U.S. and Iran ramped up another notch, it was reinforced by the Houthis who are now blockading the Red Sea and…
The first rate move under the last six Fed Chairs was an increase. You would have to go back to 1970 when the new Chairman, Arthur Burns, put through a rate cut under pressure from President Nixon. Will the latest newbie at the helm depart from the long list of his predecessors and oversee a…
Like a pesky neighbor, the US/Iran conflict continues to command unwelcome attention, capturing headlines and bedeviling forecasters striving to look through external shocks. Just as it seemed the energy-induced inflation surge was behind us thanks to the MOU struck in mid- June, hostilities are flaring up again, and so too are oil prices. To be…