Like the fictional King of Siam who grappled with what he knows and what he doesn’t know, so too must economists as well as the Fed view this week’s batch of data as a”puzzlement”. The January employment report flpped the no hiring/no firing narrative on its head; the December retail sales report upended notions that…
To say it was a topsy-turvy week in the markets would be an understatement, as extreme volatility buffeted stocks, bonds and commodities. Gold and silver suffered their biggest one-day plunge in over 35 years to start the week, after hitting record highs at the end of the previous week. Similar, if less extreme, daily swings…
The financial markets dodged two potential disrupters this week, as the choice of a new Federal Reserve Chair was revealed and another government shutdown was avoided. President Trump’s chosen nominee for the Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is less controversial than some of the other names bandied about and is more likely to be confirmed by…
If Benjamin Franklin was alive and able to amend his most popular quote, he might add uncertainty to death and taxes as the only sure events in life. Admittedly, we believed that the arrival of the new year would see a taming of the headline-grabbing uncertainty that buffeted the economy and financial markets in 2025,…
A big fear during the government shutdown was that the data blackout might be cloaking fundamental shifts in the economy even as it kept policymakers mostly in the dark and, hence, wary of responding inappropriately. Amid that proverbial fear of the unknown, the Fed understandably chose to mitigate the bigger risk, taking out preventive rate…
With the jobs report for December now on the books, it’s time to say a not-so-fondly goodbye to 2025. To be sure, the data are preliminary and subject to revision, and a bevy of other reports capturing year-end activity is yet to come. But jobs are the main engine of growth, and its trend provides…
Unless meaningful data comes out over the holidays, this will be the last full weekly for 2025, although we may publish a truncated version before the end of the year. We would like to wish all of our readers a happy and prosperous holiday season. On the surface, the Fed has to be pleased with…
The Fed followed the expected script this week, cutting rates by another quarter-percentage point, the third consecutive cut since September. If there was any drama at the gathering, it concerned the dissenters, among which were three. While that’s a lot historically, there was more of a consensus than thought, as the whisper speculation suggested as…
The backfilling of data continues apace, providing more evidence of the economy’s performance before the government shutdown. Nothing too revelatory is coming to the surface, as incoming information confirms general perceptions: Conditions were weakening, but the economy retained adequate muscle heading into the fourth quarter. We won’t be getting the official tally of third quarter…
With the government reopened and the data mills humming once again, the health of the economy is gradually coming into better focus. Unfortunately, clarity is still elusive for what transpired in October and November, as only sketchy data for the former has been collected, and information for November is still being gathered. Hence, when the…