The stagflation case lost some credibility this week, as fresh data revealed an economy that remains resilient and an inflation backdrop that is once again cooling. Meanwhile, tariffs continue to dominate the headlines, highlighted by a d’tente between the U.S. and China that dialed back the onerous reciprocal levies before the ink on their announcements…
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting took center stage amid a light data calendar this week. With no quarterly projections to mull over (the next Summary of Economic Projections will be released at the June 17-18 meeting) and no rate changes expected, the markets were laser focused on messaging, emanating from both the policy statement and,…
Despite ominous signs of a slumping economy, linked to tariff anxiety, the supporting evidence has yet to appear. True, the broadest measure of the economy’s overall performance in the first quarter suggests otherwise as GDP contracted for the first time in three years. But besides being backward looking that headline figure is also misleading as…
By recent standards it was a relatively calm week on the policy front as President Trump dialed down his tariff threats, hinting at a de-escalation of tensions with China, and walked back his attacks on Fed chair Powell. Nothing concrete was put on the books, but the tamer messages emanating from the White House was…
A cynic might say that there is method to the madness that some believe is driving the chaotic tariff blitz roiling the financial markets. While the markets are climbing a wall of worry, the current economy is reaping the benefits of that worry. Simply put, anxious consumers who are expecting higher prices on the things…
The shape-shifting nature of President Trump’s tariff threats continued to roil the financial markets this week, producing one of the wildest gyrations in stock and bond prices seen outside of shock-induced major crises. What’s more, it’s not likely that volatility will subside anytime soon. The sigh of relief when Trump postponed onerous reciprocal tariffs on…
The aftershocks of Trump’s onslaught of tariff announcements are still reverberating through the financial markets, adding another layer of uncertainty that has buffeted households and businesses for months. At the end of trading on Friday, investor stock portfolios absorbed a collective hit of about $7 trillion since the bombshell Rose Garden theatrics took center stage….
A snapshot of Februarys incoming data paints a picture that is in stark contrast to evolving perceptions of the economy. Sentiment on Main Street and Wall Street has turned decidedly bearish, with fears of both recession and inflation garnering headlines. Yet most key reports for February portrayed an environment that is as close to Goldilocks…
Amid the chaos surrounding the Trump administrations on-again, off-again tariffs the job market sounded a calming note this week. For one, there were no signs of employer panic over trade uncertainty and incipient recession fears that resonated though Wall Street over the past several weeks. Yes, the outplacement firm, Challenger, Gray, reported that a huge…
A puzzling dichotomy that received much attention last year continues to cause a good deal of head-scratching among economists, namely the wider-than-usual gulf between perceptions and reality regarding the health of the economy. Put simply, a large swath of the population believed the economy was heading for or actually in a recession amid skyrocketing inflation….