As the shutdown enters its third week, the sun is still shining on the economic landscape. But the longer it persists, the sooner will the clouds start to darken. Already the shutdown is the second longest on record and it is shutting down more government functions than previous ones. The odds that it will set…
It was another quiet week on the data front, as the government shutdown extended to its tenth day as of this writing, with no end in sight. That said, one overlooked segment of the population may be having its voice heard, as Washington appears ready to recall some workers to publish the consumer price index,…
We thoroughly expected to delve into the all-important September jobs report this morning but, of course, the BLS, the agency responsible for releasing the report, is shut down along with most of the rest of the government. How long this lasts remains to be seen. But a few things regarding the link between shutdowns, the…
The economic tailwinds continue to gather strength, pushing the early-year slog in activity further back in the rear-view mirror. Even the downtrodden housing sector provided some upbeat data this week, joining a bevy of other reports that shows the economy is riding a wave of momentum more powerful than thought. There is still a key…
Amid a busy data calendar, the Federal Reserve took center stage this week and much of the drama took place behind the scenes. Heading into the much-anticipated policy meeting it was unclear who would participate, as the race to confirm a new governor to replace the departing official, Adriana Kugler, continued until the day before…
It’s party time for Fed watchers, as policymakers are expected to add more punch to the bowl this coming week. Following a ten-month abstention, officials are likely to resume the rate-cutting campaign that included a full percentage point reduction over the final three meetings of last year, kicked off by a half point haircut in…
The continued slowdown in job growth last month will not please the administration, but at least it wasn’t blindsided by the astonishing downward revisions to previous months that appeared in the July jobs report. Still, the August reading on the labor market added a punctuation mark to the slowdown that has been underway for several…
The weekly commentary will not be published over the Labor Day weekend. The next issue will be published on September 5. All eyes were on the annual Jackson Hole symposium this week, hoping to see if Fed Chair Jerome Powell would provide any clue as to when, or whether, a rate cut would be coming….
The government pressure on the Fed to cut rates next month has reached a fever pitch, with the president, Treasury secretary and other administration officials, not to mention some members of the rate-setting policy committee, all chiming in to provide Fed Chair Powell reasons to do so as quickly as possible. Most also want the…
The political maelstrom following the surprisingly weak jobs report last week has subsided, but the shift in perceptions regarding monetary policy and, importantly, the economy’s performance remains intact. Until recently, the U.S. economy has been widely hailed for its resilience, bucking the myriad headwinds from tariffs, the geopolitical tensions they created, downbeat consumer confidence and…