Unless meaningful data comes out over the holidays, this will be the last full weekly for 2025, although we may publish a truncated version before the end of the year. We would like to wish all of our readers a happy and prosperous holiday season. On the surface, the Fed has to be pleased with…
The Fed followed the expected script this week, cutting rates by another quarter-percentage point, the third consecutive cut since September. If there was any drama at the gathering, it concerned the dissenters, among which were three. While that’s a lot historically, there was more of a consensus than thought, as the whisper speculation suggested as…
The backfilling of data continues apace, providing more evidence of the economy’s performance before the government shutdown. Nothing too revelatory is coming to the surface, as incoming information confirms general perceptions: Conditions were weakening, but the economy retained adequate muscle heading into the fourth quarter. We won’t be getting the official tally of third quarter…
With the government reopened and the data mills humming once again, the health of the economy is gradually coming into better focus. Unfortunately, clarity is still elusive for what transpired in October and November, as only sketchy data for the former has been collected, and information for November is still being gathered. Hence, when the…
Better late than never. Nearly seven weeks behind schedule the Labor Department is back in business and released the all-important employment report for September. That’s ancient history for a job market that appears nearing a crossroads. But the report provides critical information on labor conditions before the government shutdown caused a data blackout. While a…
Now that that government door has reopened, we anxiously await the data blitz that will soon hit the headlines. The jobs report for September should be released fairly soon, as the data were collected before the shutdown. But don’t expect to receive much information about what happened in October as the blackout impaired data collection…
While the Fed dithers over whether preventing job losses or hotter inflation should receive more attention, it may get help from an unexpected source. The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments over the legality of the Trump administration’s tariff blitz, having to decide whether it is justified by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. If it…
Unless rational minds take the mantle in Congress, we are inexorably barreling towards the longest government shutdown on record. By next week, the previous 35-day record of longevity set in 2018-19 would be shattered, disrupting the lives of millions of vulnerable Americans that heavily rely on government services and financial aid, not to mention the…
The window of economic news opened a crack on Friday, as the government recalled statisticians from the Labor Department to produce the September consumer price report, a necessary action to calculate the COLA adjustment for next year’s social security benefits. This might be a case of “enjoy it while you can”, because the government shutdown shows…
As the shutdown enters its third week, the sun is still shining on the economic landscape. But the longer it persists, the sooner will the clouds start to darken. Already the shutdown is the second longest on record and it is shutting down more government functions than previous ones. The odds that it will set…