How you look at this Friday’s jobs report depends on whether you are a half-full or half-empty type of person. Those with a more jaundiced view of the world will view the slowdown in payroll growth in January as an ominous sign, the first inkling that labor conditions are poised to weaken significantly as the…
This weeks calendar was packed with economic news, headlined by the Federal Reserves first policy meeting of 2025. As expected, the Fed kept its finger on the pause button, putting the fourth rate cut of the easing cycle on hold until inflation shows more tangible signs of cooling. With the economy holding up well and…
This week was a quiet time for economic data, but the floodgates will open next week with a slew of key reports on consumer spending and inflation for December as well as the governments first tally on how the overall economy performed in the fourth quarter through the lens of the GDP report. Importantly, the…
Last week the economy delivered good news for Main Street (strong job growth), but bad news for Wall Street (higher interest rates). This week, the news cycle flipped the script. Wall Street rejoiced over an inflation report whose core component came in mildly softer than expected in December. But the same report was viewed less…
Its been a rough ride in the financial markets over the past month. The S&P 500 has fallen by more than 4 percent since hitting a nearby peak on December 6, while the bellwether 10-year Treasury yield has spiked by nearly three-quarters of a percent, hitting a 15-month high of 4.80 this week. Perceptions as…
The modest Santa rally was rudely interrupted on Friday, as prices slumped amid light trading during this holiday-shortened week. Meanwhile, bond yields continued to tilt higher since the Fed announced its latest rate cut on December 18, moving from 4.40 percent to above 4.60 percent to end the week. Again, its hard to read much…
The financial markets are still reeling in the aftermath of the hawkish rate cut by the Fed this week. Stock prices plunged on the day of the Fed meeting on Wednesday and continued to drift lower until a fresh set of positive figures stoked a rally on Friday. Meanwhile, bond yields turned sharply higher, continuing…
The tail-end of the holiday shopping season is rapidly approaching; by all accounts consumers are in a festive mood, keeping their wallets open and purse strings loose. But for the first time in seven months, they did not have extra purchasing power in November to shop with, as prices at the retail level rose by…
The much-anticipated jobs report for November should not deter the Fed from cutting its benchmark rate by another quarter-point at its upcoming December 17-18 meeting. For sure, a case can be made for staying put. The economy generated a tad more jobs during the month than expected and the previous estimates of job gains for…
The debate in the financial markets regarding Trumps tariff proposals what they imply for inflation, supply chains, currency adjustments and the response by trading partners — continued apace in this holiday-shortened week. That said, given the uncertainty over what tariffs will ultimately look like, the reaction in the markets so far has been relatively positive….