The much-anticipated jobs report for November should not deter the Fed from cutting its benchmark rate by another quarter-point at its upcoming December 17-18 meeting. For sure, a case can be made for staying put. The economy generated a tad more jobs during the month than expected and the previous estimates of job gains for…
The debate in the financial markets regarding Trumps tariff proposals what they imply for inflation, supply chains, currency adjustments and the response by trading partners — continued apace in this holiday-shortened week. That said, given the uncertainty over what tariffs will ultimately look like, the reaction in the markets so far has been relatively positive….
The post-election tremors in the financial markets are gradually subsiding, as the calendar moves further away from November 5 and acceptance sets in. that said, policy uncertainty remains an albatross overhanging the markets, and some key cabinet positions, most notably the Treasury Department head, have yet to be filled. Hence, the full measure of President-elect…
With the presidential and congressional races now settled, a key source of uncertainty has been resolved. Not so with the policy proposals or how they will be accepted by incoming legislators, much less the financial markets. Historically, bold campaign promises tend to be watered down before becoming reality. Despite gaining the popular vote and control…
The headline-grabbing presidential election took center stage this week, and the outcome is still reverberating through the financial markets. Stocks continued to stage an unprecedented post-election rally through Friday although the immediate spike in bond yields was entirely erased towards the end of the week. Commentators and pundits will spend weeks on end debating what…
The vibe-recession may still be alive and well, but incoming data, if sustained, is sure to loosen its grip. While economic data may not be the best measure of happiness, they certainly look more upbeat than how people are feeling. That divergence has persisted for some time now and, unsurprisingly, the gap is beginning to…
All eyes will be laser-focused on next weeks jobs report, the key monthly data print that is the primary mover of markets and perceptions about the health of the economy. Unfortunately, the report will be marred by external shocks hurricanes and a Boeing strike that will obscure the true strength or weakness in underlying fundamentals….
The week data calendar confirms that the economy ended the third quarter on a strong note, belying the notion it is running out of fuel. Starting with the robust jobs report for September just about every subsequent indicator for the month has been stronger than expected. The exception is industrial production, as the twin blows…
Following the blockbuster jobs report last week, there was extra scrutiny placed on this weeks inflation reports. The overriding question is whether the data would validate or undercut the Feds rebalancing of risks, from worrying about elevated inflation to concern over a deteriorating job market. The jumbo half-point rate cut taken at the mid-September policy…
One big external shock was taken off the table late Thursday, when the longshoremen agreed to suspend their strike until January, allowing negotiations to continue. With the ports reopening, the prospect of pandemic-era supply disruptions, steep price hikes on many goods and widespread furloughs have been derailed, at least for several months. Even so, the…