A snapshot of Februarys incoming data paints a picture that is in stark contrast to evolving perceptions of the economy. Sentiment on Main Street and Wall Street has turned decidedly bearish, with fears of both recession and inflation garnering headlines. Yet most key reports for February portrayed an environment that is as close to Goldilocks…
Amid the chaos surrounding the Trump administrations on-again, off-again tariffs the job market sounded a calming note this week. For one, there were no signs of employer panic over trade uncertainty and incipient recession fears that resonated though Wall Street over the past several weeks. Yes, the outplacement firm, Challenger, Gray, reported that a huge…
A puzzling dichotomy that received much attention last year continues to cause a good deal of head-scratching among economists, namely the wider-than-usual gulf between perceptions and reality regarding the health of the economy. Put simply, a large swath of the population believed the economy was heading for or actually in a recession amid skyrocketing inflation….
Amid a light calendar of economic data, uncertainty continued to escalate among investors and traders this week. The elephant in the markets, of course, is the topsy-turvy world of tariff threats by the Trump administration, which was further expanded this week to include lumber and encompass more trading partners under the tariff umbrella. It is…
Inflation concerns heated up this week, ignited by reports showing stronger than expected increases in consumer and wholesale prices in January. Unsurprisingly, the attention-getting headlines solidified the growing perception that the Federal Reserve will forgo additional rate cuts for the foreseeable future. The financial markets are priced for no cuts through the spring and summer…
How you look at this Friday’s jobs report depends on whether you are a half-full or half-empty type of person. Those with a more jaundiced view of the world will view the slowdown in payroll growth in January as an ominous sign, the first inkling that labor conditions are poised to weaken significantly as the…
This weeks calendar was packed with economic news, headlined by the Federal Reserves first policy meeting of 2025. As expected, the Fed kept its finger on the pause button, putting the fourth rate cut of the easing cycle on hold until inflation shows more tangible signs of cooling. With the economy holding up well and…
This week was a quiet time for economic data, but the floodgates will open next week with a slew of key reports on consumer spending and inflation for December as well as the governments first tally on how the overall economy performed in the fourth quarter through the lens of the GDP report. Importantly, the…
Last week the economy delivered good news for Main Street (strong job growth), but bad news for Wall Street (higher interest rates). This week, the news cycle flipped the script. Wall Street rejoiced over an inflation report whose core component came in mildly softer than expected in December. But the same report was viewed less…
Its been a rough ride in the financial markets over the past month. The S&P 500 has fallen by more than 4 percent since hitting a nearby peak on December 6, while the bellwether 10-year Treasury yield has spiked by nearly three-quarters of a percent, hitting a 15-month high of 4.80 this week. Perceptions as…