Weekly Economic Commentary
WEEK ENDING DECEMBER 19, 2025
Unless meaningful data comes out over the holidays, this will be the last full weekly for 2025, although we may publish a truncated version before the end of the year. We would like to wish all of our readers a happy and prosperous holiday season. On the surface, the Fed has to be pleased with…
Previous Weeks
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 20, 2024
With the Feds aggressive half-point rate cut this week, the direction of travel has been set in motion, and a speed limit dialed into the dashboard. To be sure, monetary…
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 13, 2024
The debate over whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at next weeks FOMC meeting is still unsettled, but the odds for the smaller cut…
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 6, 2004
Amid this summers sweltering heat, a cooling trend is wafting through the labor market. The chilling effect is just what the Fed ordered as long as it doesn’t result in…
WEEK OF AUGUST 23, 2024
The weekly will not be published over the Labor Day weekend. The next issue will be September 6, the day the August employment report is released. While this week featured…
WEEK OF AUGUST 16, 2024
The Federal Reserve is a deliberative body that does not have the audacity to declare “mission accomplished” in its quest to achieve a soft landing. But it can justifiably savor…
WEEK OF AUGUST 9, 2024
First impressions are never a good look in economics. Not only do they often mislead investors, but they can also spur misguided efforts to influence policy. That notion was on…
WEEK OF AUGUST 2, 2024
The conversation about the Federal Reserve and the economy underwent a dramatic shift on Friday with the release of the all-important monthly jobs report. Traders and investors abruptly abandoned all…
WEEK OF JULY 26, 2024
We always gave low odds that the Fed would cut rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, and the surprisingly vigorous GDP report for the second quarter only confirms that view…
WEEK OF JULY 19, 2024
The debate over when the Federal Reserve should start cutting rates is continuing apace, with no clear resolution in sight over the near future. Unfortunately, incoming data is not providing…
WEEK OF JULY 12, 2024
The Labor Department delivered a triple-crown winner on the inflation front this week, as a surprisingly benign CPI report boosted the fortunes of consumers, workers, and policy makers. Whether the…
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